Excerpt: Obama personal vendetta. Saudi an coalition actions re Yemen.
Dangerous nuclear accord. Yemen's proxy war. France re Israeli-Palestinian
resolution March 29, 2015


+++SOURCE: Saudi Gazette 29 March ’15:”Ties with Israel fundamentaly altered
says White House”, Agence France Presse

SUBJECT:White House says ties with Israel fundamentally altered
Quote: “personal vendetta and even a touch of presidential petulance”
FULL TEXT:WASHINGTON — The White House has made clear its relationship with
Israel has been fundamentally altered; what Benjamin Netanyahu does in
government will determine if it can be saved.

Barack Obama’s sustained public criticism of Netanyahu’s election rhetoric
has led to allegations of a personal vendetta and even a touch of
presidential petulance.

Obama has steadfastly rebuffed Netanyahu’s efforts to row back his
election-time opposition to a Palestinian state.

An outright apology for anti-Arab comments was barely acknowledged.

“It’s has been a continuously running soap opera between Netanyahu and
Obama,” said Aaron David Miller, a former adviser to Republican and
Democratic secretaries of state.

The Obama administration has hinted it would consider a UN resolution — long
opposed by Israel — that would lay out the contours of a peace agreement and
the creation of Palestinian state.

But, at least publicly, the White House is stopping short of outright
support.

“We have not yet actually seen the text of a resolution, so I’d reserve
comment on a hypothetical resolution at this point,” said White House
spokesman Josh Earnest. The inflection point may be the creation of
Netanyahu’s government.

Negotiations to form that government are already advanced. It seems likely
to include hardline right wing and ultra-Orthodox parties.

The composition of the cabinet will matter — Washington was no fan of
foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, but it’s not clear Naftali Bennett or
other candidates would be any less hardline. Perhaps more important will be
the document that binds Netanyahu’s multi-party coalition. If Netanyahu’s
pre-election anti-Palestinian rhetoric is codified, concrete action is sure
to follow.

“The coalition agreement, which they actually have to vote on at the
Knesset, will either have to say ‘we support a two-state solution’ or it won’t,”
said Jeremy Ben-Ami, founder of J Street, a left-leaning lobby group based
in Washington.

“No matter what was said in the campaign, or what was said to walk it back,
that’s the policy of the government.”

“It is a very very clear signal if that coalition agreement, if they can’t
even get the words out of their mouth.”

The White House has made it clear that security ties will not be affected,
but from there everything else seems to be in play.

Settlement building could be met with measures to halt the flow of financing
to those individuals and organizations involved. A lot will depend on Obama’s
goals. There is as much speculation in Washington as Jerusalem about what
the US hopes to achieve by pressing Netanyahu so.

“Are they trying to force the Netanyahu government into more compliant
positions on the peace process? Are they trying to change the nature of the
relationship? Are they trying to pacify the Palestinians so that there won’t
be an explosion on the West Bank?” asked Miller.

On the diplomatic circuit, there is speculation that Obama may also, in
part, want to warn Netanyahu off further opposition to a seemingly imminent
nuclear deal with Iran.

After all, the latest tensions between the two leaders came before the
Israeli elections, when Netanyahu secretly arranged to address a joint
meeting of the Republican-controlled US Congress where he openly tried to
scupper the agreement. [IMRA: The PM did not ‘secretly arrange’; he was
invited.]

But in the short term, a United Nations resolution is what perhaps worries
Israel the most and is what diplomats will try to avoid.

“I think that’s a real possibility that the administration is seriously
contemplating. This will not make the Israelis happy,” said Edward
Djerejian, a former US ambassador to Israel. “The parameters a final
settlement would be outlined and approved by the international community.
Putting (it) on the record that the two-state solution is the one way to
go.” A similar resolution was defeated in December, largely thanks to the
US desire to avoid seeing Israel isolated.

It went as far as setting a deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from
Palestinian territories. While few agree that a dictated peace would work,
it may help keep frustrated Palestinians from acting unilaterally. “I think
that the White House concretely wants to see that the government of the
state of Israel stop undermining the chances of a state for the Palestinian
people and for peace in the region,” said Ben-Ami.

“Because if they don’t this will ultimately blow up and this country — which
has very deep interests in the Middle East — will be drawn into a very very
awful conflict.”

Even before the creation of his government, Netanyahu has started making
overtures beyond the rhetorical. A settlement plan in East [ IMRA:’eastern
Jerusalem’] Jerusalem will reportedly be frozen.

The Israeli government has also said it will release hundreds of millions of
dollars in tax funds it has withheld from the Palestinian Authority. The
Obama administration has welcomed that latter move, but it will take much
more to repair ties or even avoid a new flashpoint at the United Nations. —
AFP

+++SOURCE: Saudi Gazette 29 March ’15:”Defense minister meets Arab security
officials”, Saudi Press Agency.Al Arabiya

SUBJECT: Saudi and coalition actions re Yemen

FULL TEXT:RIYADH — Defense Minister Prince Muhammad bin Salman held meetings
with senior Arab security officials over the weekend to discuss the latest
regional developments.

The Defense Minister met with Egypt’s Chief of Intelligence Khalid Fawzi on
Thursday926 Mar.], according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).

On Friday, he received Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, deputy national
security advisor of the United Arab Emirates, upon his arrival in Riyadh.

They held a meeting during which they discussed military operations within
“Operation Decisive Storm” against Houthis in Yemen, SPA added.

Prince Muhammad Bin Salman also met Qatar's Minister of State for Defense
Affairs Maj. Gen. Hamad Bin Ali Al-Atiya as he arrived in Riyadh Friday[27
Mar.].

Saudi armed forces deploy in Al-Harth region

Border Guards’ commander of the Harth area, bordering Yemen, told Al Arabiya
News Channel that armed forces deployed along their side in some locations
to provide held and confront any possible ground aggression.

Col. Hassan Oqaili said that since “Operation Decisive Storm” began on early
Thursday[26 Mar.], some armed men headed from inside Yemen towards Saudi
borders, adding that his forces monitored this activity and informed the
armed forces of it, dealing with it directly.

He added that Border Guards stationed in the area of Jabal Al-Dukhan, in
particular, are conducting over 100 patrols over the course of 24 hours.

According to the Saudi colonel, the patrols are covering 68 kms of borders
with Yemen from the side of Al-Harth area.

He added that there’s accurate coordination with other sectors, particularly
with the armed forces.

Saudi Arabia has waged “Decisive Storm” against the Houthi coup in Yemen and
in support of legitimate President Abedrabbu Mansour Hadi.

A coalition of all GCC countries, barring Oman, is taking part in the
campaign, including Sudan, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Pakistan. —
SPA/Al-Arabiya

+++SOURCE”Netanyahu:: Naharnet (Lebanon) 29 March ’15:”Israeli PM Lshed out
as Iran Nuclear Talks Intensify”,Agence France Presse

SUBJECT:Dangerous nuclear accord

QUOTE:”Netanyahu:a nuclear deal could allow Iran to conquer the Middle East”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a dire warning Sunday[29
Mar.] about a possible nuclear accord with Iran as talks in Switzerland
towards the outline of a deal intensified days before a deadline.

"The dangerous accord which is being negotiated in Lausanne confirms our
concerns and even worse," Netanyahu said in remarks broadcast on public
radio.

He said the "Iran-Lausanne-Yemen axis" was "dangerous for all of humanity"
and that combined with Tehran's regional influence, a nuclear deal could
allow Iran to "conquer" the Middle East.

Israel, widely assumed to have nuclear weapons itself, is concerned that a
deal that six powers are trying to agree the contours of by midnight on
March 31 will fail to stop Iran from getting the bomb.

Iran, hit hard by international sanctions, denies wanting nuclear weapons
and insists that its atomic program is purely for peaceful purposes. Israel,
not Iran, is the real regional danger, Tehran says.

In Lausanne meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry canceled plans to
leave for an event in Boston on Monday[30 Mar.] in order to keep
negotiating, the State Department said.

His French and German counterparts, Laurent Fabius and Frank-Walter
Steinmeier, both due in Kazakhstan on Monday[30 Mar.], have followed suit,
diplomats said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Lausanne on Sunday[29 Mar.]
morning. Russian and British top diplomats Sergei Lavrov and Philip Hammond
were expected later, completing the line-up of foreign ministers from the
six powers.

Kerry met again early Sunday[29 Mar.] with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif, the latest in a flurry of closed-door discussions at a luxury
hotel in the Swiss town.

Asked afterwards if he was going to get a deal, Kerry said: "I don't know."

"It's going all right. We're working," he added.

Officials have expressed guarded optimism that after 18 months of tortuous
negotiations and two missed deadlines that a breakthrough might be in sight
for a deal ending 12 years of tensions.

"If we manage to resolve all the remaining issues today or in the next two
to three days, then we can begin to draw up a text. But for the moment we
are still in discussions," a source close to the Iranian delegation said
Sunday[29 Mar.].

Steinmeier said Saturday[28 Mar.] the talks were in the "endgame" but added
that "the final meters are the most difficult but also the decisive ones".

The aim is to agree broad outlines for an accord by Tuesday's[31 Mar’]
midnight deadline, and then flesh out a series of complex annexes containing
all the technical details by June 30.

The mooted deal would see Iran scale down its nuclear program and allow
unprecedented inspections of its remaining activities.

The hope is to prolong the theoretical "breakout" time that Iran would need
to produce enough fissile material to build a nuclear bomb to at least a
year from the current estimate of several months.

This would require a combination of slashing the number of machines
producing nuclear material, converting the capacities of existing nuclear
plants such as the underground Fordo facility, exporting its stocks of
enriched uranium and limiting the development of newer, faster equipment.

But Iran is insisting that in exchange global powers must lift sanctions
that have choked its economy by strangling its oil exports and banks.

The issue of U.N. sanctions is proving particularly thorny, diplomats said,
with global powers insisting the sanctions should be eased only gradually to
ensure that they can be "snapped" back into place if Iran violates the deal.

"The brinksmanship in these negotiations will no doubt continue until the
11th hour," said Ali Vaez, an expert at the International Crisis Group.

Kerry is under pressure to return from Lausanne with something concrete to
head off a push by Republican lawmakers to introduce yet more sanctions,
potentially torpedoing the whole negotiating process.

Russia has also warned that U.S.-supported airstrikes by Iran's foe Saudi
Arabia on Iran-backed rebels in Yemen -- hence Netanyahu's comment -- were
"having an impact".

"We hope that the situation in Yemen will not bring about a change in the
position of certain participants," said Russia's chief negotiator, Sergei
Ryabkov, quoted by Ria Novosti news agency.

SourceAgence France Presse



+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 29 March ’15:”Who’s fighting for whom in Yemen’s
proxy war?”. Reuters

SUBJECT: Yemen’s proxy war

QUOTE:”a proxy war between Arabia and Iran and Saudi Arabia”

FULL TEXT:An aerial campaign on Yemen’s capital, launched by a Saudi-led
pan-Arab force, has escalated what had in many ways been a proxy war between
Iran and Saudi Arabia.

While the worsening war in Yemen shares similarities with other conflicts in
the Arab world, it is the role of foreign powers in Yemen’s descent into
leaderless chaos that is particularly striking.

Because Yemen is viewed as the Arab world’s poor brother — inconsequential
and with little influence over the region as a whole — it serves as an
avenue for the Arab world to push back against Iran. There is little other
incentive for Arab governments to become involved with Yemen’s internal
quagmire, other than not having a hostile government in a nation bordering
the Bab Al Mandeb Strait, a highly trafficked shipping line leading to the
Suez Canal.

Though Yemen’s domestic power struggle since the end of President Ali
Abdullah Saleh’s reign three years ago was based largely on local
grievances, these two historical foes, Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia,
worked to use who they could in Yemen for political advantage.

The Saudi kingdom long was Yemen’s largest benefactor and held sway over
powerful Yemeni tribal leaders. Yet following Saleh’s resignation in
November 2011, Iran swiftly worked to increase its influence in Yemen by
creating ties with whomever shared a common disdain for Saudi Arabia,
including liberal anti-Saleh activists.

The Houthi rebels, an oft-ignored militia from Yemen’s far north, were an
obvious ally for Iran. Houthi fighters, who follow a sect of Shiite Islam
known as Zaydism, consolidated power in the wake of the 2011 government
collapse. They are staunchly anti-Saudi. They believe that the Kingdom was
involved in the systematic corruption of their distinct Zaydi culture via
the promotion of Wahhabism (a strict interpretation of Sunni Islam that
began in Saudi Arabia) in the Houthis’ traditional homeland in the north.

Then last September, Houthi militia swept into Yemen’s capital, Sanaa,
taking over government institutions and effectively forcing the resignation
of President Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi — a man whose power stemmed from
Western governments and the United Nations, which crafted and promulgated
the transition agreement that made him president. There was no real attempt
at a democratic transition in Yemen.

Hadi was propped up by the West despite his lack of leadership experience,
local support and political savvy. He was far from what the pro-democracy
protesters had called for in the early months of the Arab Spring. But for
the international community, the theoretical alternative to ushering Hadi
into power was that Saleh — who had already been president for 32 years —
would have clung to power, possibly igniting a civil war. Now that has
happened regardless.

Since they took the capital, Houthi militias have continued to push
southward, making strategic advances along the way, like taking control of
airports. On Thursday[23 Mar.] they battled pro-Hadi forces outside the
port city of Aden, where Hadi had fled. The extent to which Houthis’ policy
is dictated by Tehran remains unknown, but much of the Arab world believes
the group is carrying out Iran’s will. Arab governments are capitalising on
this ambiguity to serve their political agendas, as evidenced by their push
for a military incursion into Yemen. It’s the consequence of Iran’s
challenge to Saudi hegemony over Yemeni politics.

For Yemen, the consequences of foreign powers’ involvement can be dire. For
one, Saudi Arabia’s actions seem to prove the proxy war narrative. And that
threatens to further cement sectarian tensions, which have already been on
the rise. The Shiite-Sunni rivalry — such a powerful current in today’s
Middle East — was not relevant in Yemen until this past year. Followers of
both sects used to pray in the same mosques. That is not the case anymore,
and last week’s deadly suicide bombings in Zaydi mosques in Sanaa was a
terrifying indicator of that increasing divide.


+++SOURCE:Jordan Times 29 March ’15:”France to launch new UN push for
Israeli-Palestinian resolution”. Agence France Presse

SUBJECT: France re Israeli-Palestinian resolution

QUOTE:”Israel has long maintained that direct talks with Palestinians are
the best framework for advancing peace talks and has bristled at UN
involvement to set a timeframe for a deal”



UNITED NATIONS — France will soon begin talks at the United Nations on a new
Security Council resolution to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace prospects,
Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Friday[27 Mar.].

Fabius told reporters at UN headquarters in New York that discussions on a
text would start "in the coming days”.

The Security Council in December rejected a resolution that would have set a
deadline for reaching a final peace deal and pave the way to the creation of
a Palestinian state.

The United States had voted against the measure but was spared from
resorting to its veto after eight council members including France voted
yes, one vote short of the nine needed for adoption.

"I hope the partners that were reluctant will be less reluctant," Fabius
said."It is necessary to move forward to have a solution to this problem,"
he added.

The United States offered a cautious reaction to the French plan."We're not
going to get ahead of any decisions about what the United States would do
with regard to potential action at the UN Security Council," a US official
told AFP.

"We continue to engage with key stakeholders, including the French, to find
a way forward that advances the interest we and others share in a two-state
solution," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The French move came a day after UN envoy Robert Serry told the Security
Council that it should step in to present a "framework for negotiations,
including parameters" to achieve peace.

"This may be the only way to preserve the goal of a two-state solution, in
the present circumstances," he said in a bluntly worded assessment of the
Israeli-Palestinian crisis.

International concern over the fate of the peace process spiked after
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed during his election campaign
that he would never allow the establishment of a Palestinian state under his
watch.

Netanyahu later backtracked on his comments but the US administration
appeared unconvinced and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged him to renew
his commitment to a two-state solution.

Fabius stressed that a UN draft resolution could be presented to the
15-member council "in the coming weeks”.

Serry warned that a new UN resolution to re-launch negotiations would be
fruitless without a genuine commitment from both sides to reach a deal.

"If the parties are not ready to negotiate it would be wrong to rush them,"
he said.

But Fabius stressed that UN action could help nudge the two sides back to
the negotiating table."Obviously the two parties must discuss, but the
discussion must be backed by an international effort," he said.

Israel has long maintained that direct talks with the Palestinians are the
best framework for advancing peace talks and has bristled at UN involvement
to set a timeframe for a deal.
=========
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA