The Peace Index – May 2016
(N=600)
28-1/5/2016
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=305

1. What is your position on conducting peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Strongly in favor 27.0/65.3/33.4
Moderately in favor 32.5/14.8/29.6
Moderately opposed 17.9/2.2/15.3
Strongly opposed 16.9/14.0/16.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.6/3.6/5.3
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead in the coming years to peace between Israel
and the Palestinians?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Strongly believe 3.4/21.3/6.4
Moderately believe 21.4/15.8/20.4
Moderately do not believe 34.0/13.2/30.5
Do not believe at all 36.2/40.5/36.9
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.1/9.1/5.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

3. To what extent do you fear that you or one of the people important to you
will be harmed in the current wave of terror attacks?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Strongly fear 31.6/52.7/35.1
Moderately fear 36.0/25.1/34.1
Don’t fear so much 23.6/6.2/20.7
Don’t fear at all 6.3/16.1/7.9
Don’t know/Decline to answer 2.5/0/2.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

4. In your opinion, what is Israel’s security situation at present?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Very good 10.1/50.9/16.9
Moderately good 32.4/26.0/31.3
Not so good 39.7/10.5/34.8
Not good at all 15.9/10.6/15.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 1.9/2.0/1.9
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

5. In your opinion, is it right or not right to define Israel’s control of
the territories as “occupation”?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
I’m sure it is 13.4/68.3/22.5
I think it is 10.9/6.4/10.2
I think it’s not 22.7/4.0/19.5
I’m sure it’s not 49.0/10.0/42.5
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.1/11.3/5.3
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

6. Netanyahu decided to broaden his government by adding Yisrael Beiteinu
and thereby basically forwent adding the Zionist Union led by Isaac Herzog.
In your opinion, what was preferable for Israel: a government including the
Zionist Union led by Herzog or a government including Yisrael Beiteinu led
by Avigdor Lieberman?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Both of them to the same extent 11.6/32.9/15.2
A government including the Zionist Union led by Herzog 27.5/32.5/28.4
A government including Yisrael Beiteinu led by Lieberman 39.2/6.3/33.7
Neither of them is suitable (do not read) 12.5/12.6/12.5
Don’t know/Decline to answer 9.1/15.7/10.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

7. Who, in your opinion, is better suited to be defense minister: Boogie
(Moshe) Yaalon or Avigdor Lieberman?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Both of them are suitable to the same extent 7.8/30.3/11.6
Yaalon is more suitable 54.2/39.3/51.7
Lieberman is more suitable 23.8/8.2/21.2
Neither of them is suitable (do not read) 5.9/11.4/6.8
Don’t know/Decline to answer 8.3/10.8/8.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

8: How will Lieberman’s joining the government as defense minister affect
Israel’s policy on the Palestinian issue?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
The policy will not change 36.1/26.7/34.5
The policy will be tougher 44.6/54.0/46.1
The policy will be more conciliatory 6.0/9.9/6.6
Don’t know/Decline to answer 13.4/9.4/12.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

9: How will Lieberman’s appointment as defense minister affect the
Palestinian Authority’s policy?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
The policy will not change 36.8/40.0/37.3
The policy will be tougher 37.9/37.1/37.8
The policy will be more conciliatory 10.3/11.3/10.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 15.0/11.6/14.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

10: And how will Lieberman’s appointment affect the number of terror
attacks?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
The number of terror attacks will not change 44.4/31.3/42.2
The number of terror attacks will increase 14.1/41.6/18.7
The number of terror attacks will decrease 22.0/18.5/21.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 19.5/8.6/17.6
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

11: And how will Lieberman’s appointment affect relations with the United
States?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
There will be no change 48.2/48.1/48.2
The relations will deteriorate 24.3/22.9/24.1
The relations will improve 11.6/18.9/12.8
Don’t know/Decline to answer 15.9/10.1/14.9
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

12: How will Lieberman’s appointment affect the chances of renewing the
peace process with the Palestinians?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
It will not affect them one way or the other 39.2/35.8/38.6
It will decrease the chances of renewing the process 34.2/41.5/35.4
It will increase the chances of renewing the process 15.8/18.0/16.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.8/4.7/9.8
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

13. Minister of Environmental Protection Avi Gabai of the Kulanu Party
resigned from the government, saying Yaalon’s replacement by Lieberman is a
mistake and will lead Israeli policy farther to the right thereby deepening
the rifts among the people. In your opinion, was Gabai right or not right to
resign?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
I’m sure he was right 17.9/44.5/22.4
I think he was right 21.5/21.5/21.5
I think he was not right 23.8/5.1/20.7
I’m sure he was not right 23.0/10.6/20.9
Don’t know/Decline to answer 13.8/18.3/14.6
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

14. Some claim that the leader of the Kulanu Party, Finance Minister Moshe
Kahlon, had an interest in surreptitiously supporting Gabai’s resignation so
as to signal to Netanyahu that Kulanu’s presence in the government is not
guaranteed. Do you agree or disagree with this claim?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Strongly agree 6.0/37.3/11.2
Moderately agree 19.7/9.1/17.9
Don’t agree so much 25.3/10.5/22.8
Don’t agree at all 18.2/11.9/17.1
Don’t know/Decline to answer 30.8/31.2/30.9
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

15. Member of Knesset Orly Levy-Abecasis resigned from Yisrael Beiteinu. The
reason she gave was that her former party had not made enough demands in the
social-welfare sphere in return for joining the government. Some claim that
she resigned because she was not appointed as a minister. Why, in your
opinion, did Orly Levy-Abecasis really resign?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Because Yisrael Beiteinu did not make enough demands in the social-welfare
sphere in return for joining the government 29.8/19.8/28.1
Because she was not appointed as a minister 36.7/39.2/37.1
Because of both factors to the same extent 7.8/19.6/9.8
Don’t know/Decline to answer 25.7/21.3/25.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

16. How much do you trust or not trust the legal authorities to fully and
professionally look into how the Netanyahu family’s household affairs are
managed?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
Strongly trust 15.4/27.5/17.4
Moderately trust 27.3/26.0/27.1
Don’t trust so much 29.3/6.8/25.5
Don’t trust at all 20.5/25.8/21.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.5/13.9/8.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

17. Some claim that the ongoing occupation with the Netanyahu family’s
household affairs stems from a desire to oust Netanyahu. Others claim that
it results inevitably from the Netanyahu family’s unworthy conduct. With
which claim do you agree more?
Jews%/Arabs%/General Public%
With the claim that the ongoing occupation with the Netanyahu family’s
household affairs stems from a desire to oust Netanyahu 34.2/13.5/30.8
With the claim that the ongoing occupation with the Netanyahu family’s
household affairs results inevitably from the Netanyahu family’s unworthy
conduct 54.1/68.1/56.5
Don’t know/Decline to answer 11.6/18.5/12.8
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

The Peace Index: May 2016
Date Published: 06/06/2016
Survey dates: 31/05/2016 - 01/06/2016

Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

This month’s Peace Index centered on the question of how the public views
the changes that have occurred in the governing coalition—the addition of
Yisrael Beiteinu headed by Avigdor Lieberman, and his appointment as defense
minister—and how it expects these changes to affect some aspects of
diplomacy and security. We also looked into the public’s attitude toward the
security situation, the resignation of minister Gabai, and the resignation
from Yisrael Beiteinu by Member of Knesset Orly Levy-Abecasis, as well as
the legal authorities’ behavior on the issue of the Netanyahu family’s
household affairs.

The changes in the coalition: The Jewish public’s support for Netanyahu’s
decision to add Lieberman-led Yisrael Beiteinu to the government (39%) is
higher than its support for the other possibility that existed at the time:
adding the Zionist Union headed by Isaac Herzog (27.5%). The rest are
divided between those who saw both options as equally desirable (12%) and
those who saw neither of them as worthy (12.5%). A segmentation of the
answers to this question by voting in the Knesset elections revealed that
among Likud voters, 71% prefer Yisrael Beiteinu as a coalition partner while
only 9% would have preferred to see the Zionist Union join the coalition.
That is, in deciding to add Yisrael Beiteinu, Netanyahu reflected the will
of his voters. Among Zionist Union voters a majority (59%) would have wanted
to see a government that included their party and not Yisrael Beiteinu. In
other words, Herzog, too, correctly gauged the sentiments of most of the
voters for his party when he took part in negotiations on joining the
government. Among voters for Bayit Yehudi, the party headed by Minister
Naftali Bennett that put up some resistance to Yisrael Beiteinu’s joining
the coalition, the majority (64%) prefers the accession of Yisrael Beiteinu
compared to only 8.5% who would have wanted to see the Zionist Union in the
government.

In the Arab public the most common preference on the question of adding
Yisrael Beiteinu or the Zionist Union to the government is: “both of them to
the same extent” (33%). A possible interpretation here, however, is that
this public views neither of these parties as desirable. In second place is
the preference for a government that includes the Zionist Union (32.5%).

Yaalon is better suited: The Jewish public is much less satisfied with
Lieberman’s appointment as defense minister. Fifty-four percent think Yaalon
is better suited to the post, with only 24% regarding Lieberman as better
suited to it than his predecessor. That is, the preference for Yisrael
Beiteinu over the Zionist Union apparently stems from the desire of the
Jewish public, the majority of which (56%) defines itself as right-wing, to
even further enhance the right-wing camp’s dominance in the governing
coalition and not from any particular esteem for Lieberman himself. A
segmentation by Knesset voting shows that a huge majority (85%) of Zionist
Union voters view Yaalon as better suited to be defense minister (only 5% of
them think Lieberman is better suited). Among Likud voters a higher rate
sees Lieberman as better suited to the post than the rate who regard
Yaalon—a member of their party—as better suited to it (42%—Lieberman is
better suited, 37%—Yaalon is better suited). In Bayit Yehudi there is a
slight preference for Yaalon over Lieberman (40% vs. 31%).

Our previous conjecture, according to which the Arab public is not only
unenthused about the coalitional change but also has reservations about
possibly adding Zionist Union, is reinforced by the responses to the
question of suitability for the post. Indeed, the highest rate (39%)
answered that Yaalon is better suited to the position, but only a slightly
smaller rate (30%) said that the two politicians are [un?]equally suited.

Lieberman’s appointment and the Palestinian issue: Lieberman’s indignant
remarks over the past year about the Netanyahu government’s purported
feebleness in fighting terror has caused many to wonder how his appointment
will affect policy on the Palestinian issue. This month’s survey reveals
that the highest rate (45%) of the Jewish public indeed expects Israel’s
policy to get tougher, though more than a third (36%) think it will not
change. A segmentation of the responses to this question by Knesset voting
shows that, among Zionist Union voters, only 34% anticipate that the policy
will get tougher (the highest rate—49%—foresee no change), while among Likud
voters 56% believe the approach will get tougher. Among voters for Lieberman’s
party, Yisrael Beiteinu, a majority of 67% sees a toughening on the horizon,
along with 50% of Bayit Yehudi voters (compared to 33% who do not foresee a
change in policy).

A similar pattern, though a bit less pronounced, emerges for assessments of
the Palestinian Authority’s policy in response to Lieberman’s appointment as
defense minister, with an almost complete balance between 38% who think it
will get tougher and 37% who expect it to stay the same.

As for how the appointment will affect the chances to renew the peace
process with the Palestinians, the prevailing response in the Jewish public
(39%) is that it will not have an effect one way or the other. However, the
rate of those who think the appointment will reduce the chances (34%) is
considerably higher than the rate who believe it will increase them (16%).
In other words, an overwhelming majority (73%) assesses that Lieberman’s
appointment as defense minister will not boost the chances of renewing the
peace process with the Palestinians or will even diminish them.

In the Arab public a majority (54%) thinks Lieberman’s appointment will lead
to a toughening of Israeli policy. However, when it comes to the anticipated
policy of the Palestinians, the most common view (40%) is that it will
remain as it was, though 37% expect it, too, to get tougher.

The appointment’s effect on the number of terror attacks: The prevailing
view in the Jewish public (44%) is that the number of terror attacks will
not change because of Lieberman’s appointment. At the same time, the rate
who think their number will decline (22%) is greater than the rate who
expect their number to increase (14%). That is, at present more Jews think
Lieberman’s appointment has a deterrent value. The picture, however, is more
complicated: in the Jewish public there is still a very similar majority to
the one found in previous months (68%) who fear that they themselves or one
of the people important to them will be harmed in the current wave of terror
attacks. In other words, at least for the time being Lieberman’s appointment
as defense minister will not induce a decline in the level of
security-related fear. More generally, and not necessarily connected with
Lieberman’s appointment as defense minister, a majority of the Jewish public
(56%) currently assesses Israel’s security situation as not good, while
42.5% view it as moderately good. A very interesting finding is that the
Arab public’s assessment of Israel’s security situation is more favorable: a
clear-cut majority (77%) views it positively.

The appointments’ effect on relations with the United States: About half of
the Jewish public (48%) thinks Lieberman’s appointment as defense minister
will not cause a change in Israel’s relations with the United States.
Another 24%, though, expect the relations to get worse, while 12% anticipate
the opposite. The Arab public’s position on this matter is similar.

To sum up the findings so far, it appears that on most of the questions we
looked into, a majority of the Jewish public views the coalitional change as
a step in the desirable direction, though Yaalon’s replacement by Lieberman
does not stir much enthusiasm. Furthermore, the majority does not see
Lieberman’s appointment as likely to foster a change in the diplomatic or
security sphere, except for the expectation of a toughening of Israel’s
policy toward the Palestinians.

The resignation of Minister of Environmental Protection Avi Gabai: In the
Jewish public, the rate of those who regard Minister Gabai’s resignation as
unjustified (47%) is higher than the rate who say he was right to take this
step (39%). Also in this context, a higher rate (43.5%) rejects the claim
that the head of the Kulanu Party, Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, had an
interest in surreptitiously supporting Gabai’s resignation so as to signal
to Netanyahu that Kulanu’s presence in the government is not guaranteed;
only about one-fourth (26%) agree with that conjecture. Notably, the rate of
“Don’t knows” on this question (31%) is especially high. In the Arab public,
a clear opinion emerges in favor of the resignation: 66% think the former
minister’s step was justified. Unlike in the Jewish public, the highest rate
(46%) thinks Minister Kahlon probably surreptitiously supported the
resignation so as to signal to Netanyahu that his party’s tenure in the
government is not a sure thing.

Member of Knesset Orly Levy-Abecasis’s resignation from Yisrael Beiteinu:
The distribution of opinions in the Jewish public on what led her to resign
is, indeed, less than clear-cut. Thirty percent of the Jewish public was
convinced by Levy-Abecasis’s explanation that her party did not make enough
demands in the social-welfare sphere in return for joining the government. A
slightly higher rate (37%), however, thinks she resigned because she did not
get a ministerial appointment. Here too an especially high rate said they
did not know (26%). Among voters for Levy-Abecasis’s party, who apparently
are angry at her, a clear majority of 70% (!) think her resignation stemmed
from the fact that she was not appointed as a minister. In the Arab public
the highest rate (39%) ascribed her resignation to the fact that she did not
receive such a post.

The legal authorities’ behavior on the Netanyahu-household issue: Half (50%)
of the Jewish public does not trust the authorities to make a thorough and
professional inquiry into the Netanyahu family’s conduct of its household
affairs, though a large minority (43%) trusts them to do so.
Correspondingly, a considerable majority (54%) agrees with the claim that
the ongoing occupation with this issue stems from inappropriate behavior by
the Netanyahu family, while only a minority (34%) agrees with the claim that
the concern with the issue stems from the desire to oust the Netanyahu
government. Among the Arab respondents, in fact, a majority (53.5%) say they
trust the legal authorities to act professionally on this issue. We found a
similarity between the two publics on the question of the real reason for
the investigation: among the Arabs, too, the majority (which is considerably
larger than the majority among the Jewish public) sees the investigation as
stemming from the Netanyahu family’s inappropriate conduct (68%).

The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Surveys of the
Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone
from May 31 to June 1, 2016, by the Midgam Research Institute. The survey
included 600 respondents, who constitute a representative national sample of
the entire adult population aged 18 and over. The maximum measurement error
for the whole sample is ±4.1% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical
analyses were done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.