Reminder: Pres. Trump can unilaterally cause restoration of UN sanctions
Dr. Aaron Lerner 6 October 2017
Dear Reader: While the focus today is on American sanctions against Iran,
President Trump can unilaterally cause the restoration of the ENTIRE SUITE
OF UNSC SANCTIONS against Iran.
President Trump can do it by insisting that the United States believes that
Iran is not meeting its commitments under the JCPOA.
The United States doesn't have to convince anyone else. It simply has to
hold out on this position for 65 days - including 30 days during which it
vetoes any resolution in the UN Security Council attempting to stop the
To be clear: this is not IMRA's interpretation - this is what the
Congressional Research Service detailed in its September 7, 2017 report "
Options to Cease Implementing the Iran Nuclear Agreement"
The folks at CRS commented that they doubted Trump would do this because he
wouldn't have the evidence to back the move.
The truth is that he doesn't even need evidence to back the move - when 65
days pass the UNSC sanctions are restored even if the entire world insists
that the Iranians are meeting their JCPOA commitments.
Would such a move by President Trump cause North Korea to decline to make a
nuclear deal? In this case, President Trump's apparent assessment is that
a diplomatic resolution of that challenge is no longer realistic.
Weekly Commentary: Pulling the Plug On Iran Deal Takes 65 Days - Grounds Are
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 September 2017
As you are reading this there is every reason to believe that Iran is
engaged in activity in gross violation of the LETTER of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
"iii. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek,
develop or acquire any nuclear weapons."
PREAMBLE AND GENERAL PROVISIONS - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action -
Vienna, 14 July 2015
To be clear: working on the mechanics of a nuclear weapon constitutes
"developing" a nuclear weapon.
The United States has a strong prima facie case to believe that Iran is
doing just that at military facilities.
And while the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) proclaims that Iran
is in compliance with the JCPOA, the Iranians themselves boast that the IAEA
is virtually clueless as to what is taking place at the military facilities
since, as Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor on international affairs for
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei told reporters this week, [IAEA Director
General ] Mr. Amano, his agents and no other foreigners have the right to
inspect our military sites, because these sites are among off-limit sites."
If President Trump is serious about Iran he has the power to pull the plug
on the JCPOA in a move that would restore international sanctions on Iran.
And he could do it regardless of what Russia, China or anyone else thinks,
thanks to the U.S. veto in the UN Security Council.
And it would take only 65 days.
Let's count them:
This is all directly from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - Vienna, 14
The clock starts:
36. If Iran believed that any or all of the E3/EU+3 were not meeting their
commitments under this JCPOA, Iran could refer the issue to the Joint
Commission for resolution; similarly, if any of the E3/EU+3 believed that
Iran was not meeting its commitments under this JCPOA, any of the E3/EU+3
could do the same. The Joint Commission would have 15 days to resolve the
issue, unless the time period was extended by consensus.
After Joint Commission consideration, any participant could refer the issue
to Ministers of Foreign Affairs, if it believed the compliance issue had not
been resolved. Ministers would have 15 days to resolve the issue, unless the
time period was extended by consensus. After Joint Commission
consideration in parallel with (or in lieu of) review at the Ministerial
level - either the complaining participant or the participant whose
performance is in question could request that the issue be considered by an
Advisory Board, which would consist of three members (one each appointed by
the participants in the dispute and a third independent member). The
Advisory Board should provide a non-binding opinion on the compliance issue
within 15 days.
Another 15 days
If, after this 30-day process the issue is not resolved, the Joint
Commission would consider the opinion of the Advisory Board for no more than
5 days in order to resolve the issue.
Another 5 days
If the issue still has not been resolved to the satisfaction of the
complaining participant, and if the complaining participant deems the issue
to constitute significant non-performance, then that participant could treat
the unresolved issue as grounds to cease performing its commitments under
this JCPOA in whole or in part and/or notify the UN Security Council that it
believes the issue constitutes significant non-performance.
Total 35 days to bring to the UN Security Council
37. Upon receipt of the notification from the complaining participant, as
described above, including a description of the good-faith efforts the
participant made to exhaust the dispute resolution process specified in this
JCPOA, the UN Security Council, in accordance with its procedures, shall
vote on a resolution to continue the sanctions lifting. If the resolution
described above has not been adopted within 30 days of the notification,
then the provisions of the old UN Security Council resolutions would be
re-imposed, unless the UN Security Council decides otherwise.
Another 30 days and sanctions restored.
Grand total: 65 days.
To repeat: that's 65 days for ALL the sanctions that were lifted under
JCPOA would be restored.
And that's regardless of what Russia, China, or anyone else thinks.
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
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