Weekly Commentary: Yom Kippur War Repeat - The Self Serving Conceptzia
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 September, 2018

Israeli policy towards Hezbollah today is driven by the "conceptzia" that
their goal in the next major round is essentially a photo-op. Albeit a
bloody one.

Hezbollah forces will cross into Israel and slaughter the Israelis who
weren't evacuated in time, raise their flag and broadcast the event.

There's a similar "conceptzia" for Hamas. The only difference in the
assessment is that Hamas is assumed to be both kidnapping and slaughtering
Israelis.

Hundreds - or even thousands - of Israeli dead would be a tragedy. But it
wouldn't threaten the future of the Jewish State.

After all, in both cases, whatever Hezbollah or Hamas does, it is expected
that at the end of the round their losses in both forces and physical assets
will be magnitudes greater than Israeli losses.

The "conceptzia" is a great source of comfort for policy makers.

It serves to justify postponing in perpetuity any substantive action against
Hezbollah and Hamas.

There will always be a weapons system on order, a gizmo still under
development, force reorganizations yet to be implemented and of course
diplomatic considerations yet to be resolved.

But what if the "conceptzia" is wrong?

I look at two enemies that have poured tremendous resources over many years
preparing for a major conflict.

Enemies that have developed considerable capabilities.

And all they are going to do is slaughter some Israelis near the border?

It would be irresponsible for me to share on a public forum my assessment of
what Hezbollah and Hamas are not only capable to do but will attempt to
carry out in a major conflict.

Suffice it to say that in the absence of the "conceptzia", the potential
consequences associated with letting Hezbollah or Hamas pick the time and
place of the next major round far outweigh the costs of neutralizing these
threats today.

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