Background: Does Trump Deal Open Window Or Slam It Shut?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 January, 2020

Just as Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu cornered himself into applying
Israeli law to the Jordan Valley next week rather than simply PROMISING
again to do it in the future we had the dramatic news that he was going to
Washington to discuss the "Deal of the Century".

And while the application of Israeli law to various locations is apparently
part of the package, it remains unclear when, if ever, this will actually
take place.

Possibility #1: Apply Israeli law next week after the Washington meeting:
Take a look back to 2003, when the Sharon Administration adopted the
approach proposed by then Foreign Minister Netanyahu for dealing with the
Roadmap:

+++
Israel Government Press Office Israel Sent: Sunday, May 25, 2003 7:14 PM

A. The Government of Israel, today (Sunday), 25.5.03, considered the Prime
Minister's statement on the Roadmap, as well as Israel's comments on its
implementation. Following its deliberations, the Government, by a majority
vote, resolved:

Based on the 23 May 2003 statement of the United States Government, in which
the United States committed to fully and seriously address Israel's comments
to the Roadmap during the implementation phase, the Prime Minister announced
on 23 May 2003 that Israel has agreed to accept the steps set out in the
Roadmap.

The Government of Israel affirms the Prime Minister's announcement, and
resolves that all of Israel's comments, as addressed in the Administration's
statement, will be implemented in full during the implementation phase of
the Roadmap.
+++

A variant on this would be for Mr. Netanyahu to proclaim on the White House
Lawn that Israel accepts the proposal in principle subject to "comments"
which Israel will prepare with President Trump stating that the United
States is committed to fully and seriously address Israel's comments to the
plan during the implementation phase.

In return for accepting the proposal in principle subject to "comments"
Israel gets the green light to apply Israeli law this week.

Possibility #2: Prime Minister Netanyahu thanks President Trump for the
fantastic plan and says that he is going back to Jerusalem to hammer out the
details of Israel's comments.

The Israeli public is advised that all initiatives are frozen until the
Government formally agrees to the "Deal" subject to "notes".

The election campaign focuses on what these "notes" should contain.

And after the elections?

Frankly speaking, hard to know for sure.

Many of the arguments pitched against applying Israeli law will remain in
place: For a while the excuse-of-the-month was fear of the International
Criminal Court. This week we are back to concern for the stability of
Jordan. The history of years of Likud administrations is that there is
always a reason to justify postponing taking our destiny in our hands.

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