Observation: Critics of Leaving JCPOA Clueless What Iran Was Really Doing
Due Inherent Monitoring Limits
Dr. Aaron Lerner 30 May 2022
When talking heads and others argue that abandoning The Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA) brought Iran within days of being able to make a nuke
rather than close to a year they are assuming that JCPOA provided for
effective compliance monitoring.
But one of the terrible gaps in JCPOA was that it failed to provide for
meaningful monitoring of Iranian activities with the IAEA barred access to
facilities which Iran designated to be "military sites".
Simply put, critics of leaving JCPOA are clueless what Iran was really doing
when the US pulled out from the deal nor do they have the tools to predict
what Iran would have achieved if America had continued with JCPOA.
By the same token, since JCPOA does not actually provide for monitoring
Iranian nuclear activity in facilities which Iran designated to be "military
sites", a return to JCPOA in no way necessarily delays an Iranian nuke
because we will remain clueless what Iran is doing to reach the goal of
having nukes in its "military sites".
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