Weekly Commentary: IDF COS Halevi: Weakening Hezbollah Not On IDF's Agenda
Dr. Aaron Lerner 24 May 2023

"...Hezbollah's buildup in the country is a major challenge for us. We are
delaying it, but it is difficult to contain it. We constantly need to ensure
that a qualitative gap is maintained and expanded between the pace of our
improvements and what they are doing, and always consider an initiative that
can bring an advantage."

"Hezbollah is very deterred by the idea of an all-out war with Israel."
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi this Tuesday at the Herzliya Conference

Let's break this up:

"We are delaying it" - slowing the pace of Hezbollah's buildup.

"but it is difficult to contain it" - Israel has a hard time stopping
Hezbollah from building up.

"We constantly need to ensure that a qualitative gap is maintained and
expanded between the pace of our improvements and what they are doing." -
our program is to improve our own capabilities.

"Hezbollah is very deterred by the idea of an all-out war with Israel." -
let us ignore that the question was never if Hezbollah is interested in
engaging in a full scale conflict with Israel but instead if Hezbollah would
refuse to launch a full scale conflict with Israel if Iran ordered them to
do it.

We can draw two conclusions from this presentation:

#1. Israel apparently has no intention to launch an operation, at its own
initiative, to significantly reduce Hezbollah's huge buildup. ("always
consider an initiative that can bring an advantage" can be interpreted as
meaning a lot of things other than what is termed "mowing the grass" when we
engage in operations on other fronts to reduce the buildups of our enemies.)

#2. Israeli officials continue to rely on the "deterrence" of Hezbollah's
leaders in Lebanon when the real decision makers regarding if Hezbollah
engages in a full scale conflict with Israel sit in Teheran.

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