Updated Checklist for 19 January 2026 - Did Things Work Out?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 January 2024

"Fortune is the arbiter of one-half of our actions, but that she still
leaves us to direct the other half, or perhaps a little less."
Machiavelli's The Prince

I hope to share very favorable results when I review this checklist in
another year:

1. Iran
1.1. Does Iran still possess the equipment to make weapons-grade uranium?

1.2. Are there Israeli warnings regarding the potential that Iran makes
and/or acquires nuclear weapons which have not been satisfactorily
addressed?

2. Gaza Strip
2.1. Do Hamas and/or Islamic Jihad (either as they now call themselves or as
they relabel themselves) continue to have an active role in what goes on in
the Gaza Strip?

2.2. Does Israel have the intelligence on the ground to detect programs to
rebuild the "resistance"?

2.2.1. When such programs are detected, are they promptly quashed or
recorded in a "target bank"?

2.3. Is absolute "no entrance" enforced in the "security perimeter"?

2.4. Have adequate measures been implemented in the educational system in
the Gaza Strip so that it educates for peaceful coexistence with Israel?

3. Lebanon
3.1 Does Hezbollah have any presence and/or south of the Litani River?

3.2 Does Hezbollah posses any rockets or missiles anywhere in Lebanon?

3.3 Does Israel have effective independent capabilities to identify
violations of the ceasefire?

3.3.1 Are violation resolved by their eradication or are they recorded in a
"target bank"?

4. Judea and Samaria
4.1. Has Israel annexed any area in Judea and Samaria?

4.2. Has illegal Arab construction in Area C been significantly reduced as
compared to a year ago?

4.3. Is the number of final building permits (not the many intermediate
steps) for Israeli construction in the last 12 months significantly larger
than a year before?

4.4. Has there been a significant decline in terror attacks in Judea and
Samaria?

5. IDF
5.1. Has Israel followed through with the implementation of the various
domestic production projects to make Israel "sanction resistant"?

5.2. Is the IDF successfully drafting enough people to meet its needs?

6. Haredis
6.1. Is there effective financial and pedagogic oversight of Haredi
educational institutions?

6.2. Have subsidies, taxes, etc., been revised to discourage able-bodied men
from choosing poverty rather than full-time work?

6.3. Were Haredis drafted in accordance with the capacity of the IDF to
accommodate them (10,000 in 2025)?

6.3.1. Were these Haredis from the mainstream of Haredi society?

6.3.2. Were these mostly young single men?

7. Saudi Arabia
7.1. Has Israel upgraded its relations with Saudi Arabia?

7.1.1. Was this achieved without Israel making any commitment, no matter how
vague, to advance on the "two-state solution"?

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Arab-Israeli relations

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