Weekly Commentary: Saudi Role in Al-Aqsa Security as Reward for Diplomatic
Recognition

Dr. Aaron Lerner 29 January 2025

Context: The Israel-Jordan Treaty and Al-Aqsa's Status

The 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty plays a defining role in shaping the
administration and security of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem, particularly
the Al-Aqsa Mosque. A key clause states:

"Israel respects the present special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
in Muslim Holy shrines in Jerusalem. When negotiations on the permanent
status will take place, Israel will give high priority to the Jordanian
historic role in these shrines."

This provision ensures that Jordan remains the official custodian of
Al-Aqsa, through the Jordanian-controlled Waqf (Islamic trust). However, the
treaty does not explicitly prevent Saudi Arabia from playing a role,
provided it does not challenge Jordan's custodianship.

A Measured Saudi Role: Enhancing Security Without Changing Custodianship

Saudi Arabia's growing influence in the region, its aspirations for a
formalized relationship with Israel, and its status as the guardian of Mecca
and Medina make its potential involvement in Al-Aqsa security a natural
extension of its regional leadership.

Rather than seeking custodianship, a more practical and mutually beneficial
role would be for Saudi Arabia to fund and implement Mecca-style security
infrastructure at Al-Aqsa while ensuring Jordan retains full religious and
administrative authority.

Under this proposal, Saudi Arabia's role would be strictly limited to:

Funding & Implementing Electronic Security Measures:

Installation of metal detectors, baggage scanners, and explosives detection
at all mosque entry points, similar to those in Mecca.

Enhancing crowd control through smart surveillance systems to prevent
weapons smuggling and unauthorized access.

24/7 AI-Powered Security Cameras:

High-resolution surveillance cameras throughout Al-Aqsa compound to prevent
riots and unauthorized activities.

Real-time monitoring by security teams, with access provided to Jordanian
Waqf, Israeli security agencies, and Saudi-backed security analysts.

Funding Al-Aqsa Maintenance and Infrastructure:

Ongoing structural upkeep, cleaning, and renovation projects.

No funding for Waqf salaries or political initiatives, ensuring Jordan
retains religious oversight.

Why Jordan Would Accept This Deal

Jordan has historically resisted any attempts to dilute its custodianship of
Al-Aqsa. However, this arrangement would not undermine its
authority-instead, it would provide significant financial and security
benefits without forcing Amman into a politically risky concession.

Jordan would benefit from:

Reduced Israeli security presence inside the mosque compound, which has long
been a point of tension between Israel and Jordan.

Enhanced security that prevents radicals from using Al-Aqsa as a flashpoint
for regional unrest.

Direct financial relief from Saudi-funded maintenance, easing Jordan's
economic burden.

No political loss, as Jordan remains the sole religious authority under the
Israel-Jordan treaty framework.

How This Benefits Israel

For Israel, this proposal presents a major strategic advantage:

Improved Security Without Concessions:

The introduction of advanced screening and surveillance reduces the risk of
attacks emanating from Al-Aqsa.

Weapons smuggling and violent riots would decrease significantly with
Saudi-funded security upgrades.

Reduces Israeli-Jordanian Tensions:

Israel has long faced criticism for deploying police inside the mosque
compound.

By allowing Saudi-funded, Jordanian-operated security upgrades, Israel can
maintain full control over overall security while decreasing the need for
direct police interventions.

Strengthens Regional Alliances:

By giving Saudi Arabia a non-political but highly visible role, Israel can
use this as leverage in future regional negotiations.

Why This is a Major Win for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia would significantly enhance its regional status through this
initiative without needing to formally challenge Jordan or Israel. The
benefits include:

Becoming the "Guardian of Al-Aqsa's Security"

Saudi Arabia would solidify its role as the key security provider for all
three of Islam's holiest sites (Mecca, Medina, and now Al-Aqsa).

This neutralizes rival claims by Turkey and Iran, both of whom have used
Al-Aqsa for political posturing.

Strengthening Saudi-Jordan Relations

By funding Al-Aqsa's security and maintenance, Saudi Arabia deepens its
economic and strategic ties with Jordan, giving it greater influence over
Amman's policies.

Advancing Saudi-Israel Normalization as an Alternative to Palestinian
Statehood Commitments

Instead of requiring Israel to make commitments toward a Palestinian state,
this initiative could be framed as a stability-oriented "reward" for Saudi
diplomatic recognition of Israel.

This allows Israel to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia without making
political concessions to the Palestinians.

Saudi Arabia still achieves a high-profile Islamic leadership role,
fulfilling its symbolic commitment to Jerusalem without requiring direct
Palestinian engagement.

Conclusion: A Realistic and Balanced Solution

This Saudi-Jordan-Israel arrangement offers a rare win-win-win scenario:

(1`) Jordan maintains full custodianship, with enhanced resources for
Al-Aqsa's security and maintenance.
(2) Israel gains significant security improvements without making political
concessions to the Palestinians.
(3) Saudi Arabia cements its influence as a protector of Al-Aqsa,
strengthening its regional standing.
(4) Normalization with Saudi Arabia advances without requiring Israeli
commitments on Palestinian statehood.

At a time when Al-Aqsa remains a volatile flashpoint, such a measured and
cooperative security initiative could play a pivotal role in ensuring
regional stability while preventing radicals from exploiting the site. This
initiative could serve as a stepping stone toward broader diplomatic
cooperation in the Middle East, benefiting all parties involved.
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