Haredis Biggest Losers If Smotrich's Annexation Implemented
Dr. Aaron Lerner 7 September 2025

I am not going to speculate as to what combination of circumstances would
cause Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to have his Cabinet make a snap vote
for a massive annexation which would make a Palestinian state impossible.

I am, however, certain that master politician Netanyahu is well aware that
such a move would dramatically change the dynamics of Israeli politics.

Ever since Oslo, the non-Haredi members of national camp coalitions
justified concessions to the Haredis on the grounds that their participation
was required to have ruling coalitions which truly oppose a Palestinian
state.

But while a ruling coalition can unilaterally make all kinds of concessions
with land that hasn't been annexed, a national referendum or the approval of
80 MKs would be required to roll back any annexation.

So the Palestinian State "bogeyman" wouldn't play a role in post-annexation
elections or coalition building.

Social welfare issues would.

And it is difficult to predict what new voting blocs would coalesce.

I would note, for example, that within the Likud it seems that many of the
rank and file members favor government intervention in housing more than the
leadership does.

Bottom line: Netanyahu wouldn't actually implement annexation for a
short-lived political gain. It would have to be because, as was the case
with the critical decisions he made vis-à-vis Iran and the beepers, he was
compelled to act in order to serve vital national interests.
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