Weekly Commentary: Last Ditch Effort To Avoid Heavy Collateral Damage IDF
reveals only tip of iceberg in Hezbollah rocket program
Dr. Aaron Lerner 30 August, 2019

The explosion in Lebanon this week that destroyed a critical element in the
Iran-Hezbollah program to produce new precision rockets in Lebanon reflects
just how serious the situation is.

The move is a dramatic departure from Israel's policy not to carry out overt
activity in Lebanon against the ongoing Hezbollah arms buildup.

The overwhelming majority of the information Israel released this week
regarding the rocket program focused on efforts to produce NEW precision
rockets in Lebanon.

Unfortunately, the official line that Hezbollah has managed to upgrade only
a few rockets with the upgrade kits doesn't appear to jibe with the
information that Israeli intelligence provided in briefings to reporters in
the past.

The most important article on this issue was written by Neri Zilber in The
Daily Beast on 21 February 2019
https://www.thedailybeast.com/to-target-israel-irans-suitcase-gps-kits-turn-hezbollah-rockets-into-guided-missiles

Let's do the math.

#1. According to senior Israeli military officers the missile upgrade kits
are the size of "small roll-aboard luggage".

#2. Iran has been flying jumbo cargo jets into Beirut Airport.

#3. According to senior Israeli military officers the missiles upgrade could
be carried out in a small room, taking two to three hours a missile.

The math: one jumbo cargo jet can carry well over a thousand pieces of
"small roll-aboard luggage" and they can be used to upgrade missiles at a
rate of well over 5 a day per team working small rooms.

And this has been going on for over 6 months.

One team at that rate could have upgraded over a 1,000 rockets!

And that's just one team in one room.

So what's going on?

My best guess is that the move tis week served a three-fold purpose:

#1. Eliminate a key machine before destroying it would require causing huge
collateral damage.

#2. Shake the confidence of Hezbollah so that they are compelled to relocate
all sites associated with the precision rocket program - both the new rocket
program and the upgrade program.

#3. Lay the groundwork for justifying the collateral damage that we are
going to be compelled to cause if Hezbollah does not abandon this program.

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