Observation: Are Bennett and Shaked rearranging the deck chairs on the
Titanic
Dr. Aaron Lerner 20 December 2019

Here are the facts:

#1. The most certain way for a national camp victory in the upcoming
elections is for two lists to run to the "right" of Likud: a liberal list
and a religious list.

#2. The liberal list would draw from Yisrael Beiteinu supporters as well as
"just not Bibi" members of the national camp who might otherwise either stay
home or even possibly vote Blue and White in exasperation.

#3. A necessary condition for "liberal list" status is explicitly embracing
liberal positions on state-religion matters. That mean, for example,
supporting public transportation on the Sabbath decided on a municipal level
rather than supporting a "process for resolving the issue of public
transportation on the Sabbath." It might mean supporting a universal civil
marriage law rather than supporting a "process for resolving the issue of
marriages that cannot be carried out within the religious framework."

To be clear: it isn't that the target audience would vote for the "liberal
list" because of its liberal stands. The "liberal list" would receive votes
because of its national camp positions. BUT it’s a NECESSARY CONDITION for
the "liberal list" to hold liberal positions on state-religion matters to be
even considered worthy to receive the votes of the target audience.

Both Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked talk the talk that they WANT the
liberal vote and recognize that the liberal vote is the key to victory but
it remains to be seen if they can connect the dots

Each time Bennett and Shaked ran together they wanted the liberal vote and
yet each time their positions on state-religion matters drove away the
liberal vote.

There is no indication to date that this time will be any different.

As of this writing, they don't appear to have come to grips with the fact
that their target audience isn't seeking an invitation to a Sabbath meal -
they want a Sabbath bus.

I appreciate that it’s a hard move to make. Its one that may alienate some
staffers and volunteers.

Naftali Bennett's appointment as defense minister gives him a unique
opportunity. There is enough time until the elections for him to prove his
worth and it turn draw in support from voters who until now wouldn't have
considered supporting his party. But again - these are Israelis who won’t
cast their votes for a religious party.

The most certain path to victory requires that Bennett cross the
"state-religion Rubicon".

It remains to be seen if the Bennett-Shaked duo can avoid repeating their
past mistake.
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