Weekly Commentary: Thoughts About The Chaotic Post Abbas Period
Dr. Aaron Lerner 26 December 2020

There are numerous well armed Palestinians militias in Judea and Samaria
poised to seize power for competing personalities and factions the moment
that Mahmoud Abbas exits the stage.

Their guns for the most part will be aimed at each other. After all, it
wasn't Jews that Hamas militiamen threw off of the roof tops in Gaza, it was
Fatah members.

Nonetheless, it can be expected that various forces also attack Israelis
both to garner favor on the Palestinian street and to compel Israel to
inject itself into the fray.

Who ends up in power is anyone's guess.

Perhaps the only thing that can be reasonably predicted is that if this
plays out after January 19th that Washington is going to be both painfully
naive and cynical in who or what it supports on the Palestinian side and
cruelly demanding and unreasonable with regard to anything Israel does or
does not do in response to the developing situation.

If, indeed, we face a chaotic post Abbas period, it may be that the most
effective approach will be on a regional/municipal level, essentially
abandoning the Palestinian Authority as the platform for interfacing with
the Palestinians.

There certainly is an historical and practical basis for Israel to deal with
the Palestinians on a regional/municipal level. Even at the height of
Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, Palestinian municipal authorities worked
in cooperation with Israel to restore sewer lines and other infrastructure
damaged in the Operation.

Labels and slogans aside, such an approach could lead to the development of
a group of stable and viable Palestinian regional autonomies serving the
interests of the Palestinian residents without providing a breeding ground
for conflict with the Jewish State.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il