Weekly Commentary: Has Netanyahu Set The Stage For Potential Likud Break Up?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 8 May 2021
Two weeks ago the members of the Likud Central Committee were called to an
emergency meeting in Tel Aviv to approve a resolution giving the head of the
Likud the authority to co-opt other lists into a joint list of his design in
the next elections without requiring the Central Committee to approve the
composition of the joint list.
If a coalition government is formed in the coming days without the Likud
and, as is now planned by this coalition, Basic Law Government is changed so
that failure to pass a budget does send the country into new elections,
there is a reasonable possibility that groups of Likud MKs will opt to
temporarily split away from the Likud.
I say temporarily because they will make the move with the idea that they
have a better chance at getting a good position on the joint list in the
next elections in 2 or 4 years coming from outside the Likud than inside.
The Likud election list includes "national", "regional" and "sectoral"
spots. The "regional" and "sectoral" spots afford an opportunity for new
people to get on the list since once someone gets into the Knesset he has to
run the next time on the national list.
Under normal conditions all the Likudniks now serving as MKs would find
themselves competing in the Likud primaries for the 19 "safe" national list
spots. But now that the stage has been set a priori for a joint list the
number of ultimately "safe" national list spots will be anyone's guess.
If a coalition government sans Likud is formed would a break way segment of
the Likud opt to join it? Major players in the Likud, such as Tzachi
Hanegbi, who followed Ariel Sharon to his break away Kadima party were
welcomed back to the Likud fold. Anything is possible.
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