Weekly Commentary: Hamas and Hezbollah Patience - Not Israeli Deterrence
Dr. Aaron Lerner 8 January 2022
Let's not have any illusions:
It isn't fear of the IDF that's stopping Hamas from firing a barrage of
rockets tonight at Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv or for that matter Raanana.
It is patience.
Hamas is not only busy upgrading and manufacturing rockets. They are no
doubt devoting huge resources towards shifting their network of
defense/attack tunnels in every city in the Gaza Strip so that they run
mostly under buildings rather than streets to make it difficult for the IAF
to attack them.
And fear of the IDF is not what is stopping Hezbollah from firing its
hundreds of thousands of rockets towards the Jewish State tonight.
It is patience.
As each day passes they manage to smuggle in and install more of the
suitcase sized guidance system rocket upgrade kits.
That's "patience" - not "deterrence".
There is an important difference between the two.
Because if defense officials who talk about "deterrence" really believe that
there is "deterrence" then they are clueless.
And if they are clueless then this can lead to serious errors in not only
planning and preparations to address these challenges but also in the timing
of the execution of operations against Hamas and Hezbollah.
After all, if you think we are deterring our enemies there is no rush to do
anything about Hamas or Hezbollah.
On the other hand, if Hamas and Hezbollah are patiently preparing to attack
us in the future under conditions considerably more favorable for them then
"quiet for quiet" does not serve our interests.
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