Observation: Will Shas Cause Formation of Coalition Without Haredis?
Dr. Aaron Lerner January 18, 2023
If the Council of Sages of Shas instructs the 11 Shas MKs to walk out of the
government in the wake of the Supreme Court decision against Deeri serving
as a minister Binyamin Netanyahu will face a critical decision,
Option #1: He can try to replace the 11 with Yisrael Beiteinu (6) and New
Hope (4). But it is highly unlikely that these parties will agree to join a
coalition with Netanyahu as prime minister.
Option #2: He can go for snap elections only to find himself with the same
problem since Deeri still cannot serve as a minister.
Option #3: He can go for snap legislation with a 100% chance the the Supreme
Court voids the legislation so that we ultimately end up back at Option #2
if Shas continues to insist that they cannot remain in the coalition if
Deeri is not a minister.
Option #4: He can reform the government with Deeri appointed the
"replacement prime minister" and while this technically is not subject to
the legal limitations of a regular minister there are excellent chances that
the Supreme Court will find a way to void that appointment as well so that
we ultimately end up back at Option #2 if Shas continues to insist that they
cannot remain in the coalition if Deeri is not a minister.
Option #5: He can hold a snap meeting of the Likud Central Committee to
approve a change in the rules so that someone else from the Likud can serve
as prime minister. The odds are close to 100% that Yisrael Beiteinu (6) and
New Hope (4) would join a Likud coalition as long as Netanyahu is not the
If the Ashkenazi haredi party, UJT (7 seats) were to somehow decided to
join Shas in walking out then there are close to 100% odds that Lapid's
Yesh Atid (24 sets) would join the coalition headed by a Likudnik other
than Netanyahu. This would result in a coalition of 87 (!) MKs.
Since Binyamin Netanyahu apparently genuinely believes that only he is
equipped to lead the country, it would appear that Options #2, #3 and #4 are
the most likely.
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on