Weekly Commentary: Multiple-Front War with No Resupplies from America
Requires Immediate Out-of-the-Box Thinking
Dr. Aaron Lerner 29 April 2023
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and others have warned that we may face war
with Gaza, Hezbollah, and others in Lebanon, and even the possibility that
Iranian-backed militias in Syria and elsewhere join the fray.
Even under normal circumstances, we simply do not have the resources to
simultaneously implement the two separate "playbooks" we have for a war in
Gaza and a war in Lebanon.
To add to the challenge, conflicts and threats around the world have created
a situation in which it is far from clear that the United States would be
able to resupply us even if they wanted to.
On the home front, it means drastically limiting the interception of enemy
projectiles to a predetermined list of critical locations. Civilians will be
on their own.
This painful policy cannot be adopted on the fly after we realize we are
running out of interceptors. It requires a lot of thinking and preparation.
And it's a move that goes against the grain so much that we need our
decision-makers and the entire command and operations structure to drill the
scenario to the point that the orders will actually be issued and followed.
Limited resources would also compel the IDF to revise the choice of targets
for maximum impact at costs which, in a single-front scenario, would not
even be considered.
It's "hands off" when the top Hamas military command sits in a bunker
underneath a Gaza hospital in a single-front conflict. It is possible that
the policy should be different in the scenarios DM Gallant is worried about.
We must think through these and other operations now and not on the fly
because if such tactics are required, we have to know both how the IDF pulls
it off and how we handle the international backlash for doing what we have
Israel's defense industry should already be gearing up for the challenge.
Every day could be critical.
The talk of a multiple-front war isn't just some throwaway line in the
debate over judicial reform.
It's a very real and critical challenge that must be addressed without
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