Weekly Commentary: Hamas and Hezbollah Patient (In Coordination With Iran) -
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 May 2023
It is critical that Israeli policymakers understand that Hamas and Hezbollah
patience, rather than Israeli deterrence or Israeli carrots, explains why
they haven't actively joined in the battle between Islamic Jihad and the
Iran is indeed patiently building up the attack capabilities of Hamas and
Hezbollah and has no intention to waste their huge investment.
And the crime is that under "quiet for quiet" the only thing Israel is doing
about these massive programs is to dutifully record each weapons factory,
testing site, armory, etc. in a target bank.
Yes. Weapons destined for Hezbollah may be destroyed if they are in Syria.
But the moment they cross the border into Lebanon its target bank time.
You've no doubt read about the GPS upgrade kits which turn rockets into
guided missiles which we have destroyed in Syria. When the very same kits
land in Beirut Airport we do nothing.
Yes, people mysteriously die in Lebanon. But there's no open source coverage
of mysterious explosions or other activities in Lebanon which would indicate
that the Jewish State is doing anything substantial to prevent the ongoing
upgrade of many tens of thousands of rockets into guided missiles.
So these days Hamas has been sitting back and observing our method of
operations against rival Islamic Jihad so that it can improve its own
Hamas will continue to openly test their rockets as they extend their range
and warhead weight. And we will take notes.
Hamas one day will, if they haven't already, introduce guided missiles. And
we will take notes if we are even aware of it.
Hamas will improve and practice their use of drones. And we will take
Hamas will continue carrying out huge military exercises in preparation for
judgment day. And we will take notes.
And when the "quiet for quiet" ceasefire with Islamic Jihad goes into effect
they also can gleefully openly begin producing rockets for the next round.
And we will tale notes.
Its not deterrence its patience.
Its not work permits. Its patience.
Allowing Gaza to build a seaport or airport won't change their determination
to prepare and ultimately participate in judgment day.
To be clear: I support improving the economic lot of Gazans. I think it's a
good idea to allow as many Gazans to be gainfully employed in Israel as
possible subject to security considerations.
But I harbor no illusion that these Israeli "carrots" will somehow prevent
Hamas from following attack orders issued from Teheran when that day comes.
Israeli policymakers must recognize this.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu rightfully sees Iran as our existential
But our ability to carry out an operation against Iran and the consequences
of such an operation would be profoundly different if we FIRST destroy the
military capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah.
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