Weekly Commentary: Silver Lining to Blinken-Austin Arms Embargo Threat

Dr. Aaron Lerner, 15 October 2024

When we realized that it was a mistake to rely on American supplies of
one-ton bunker busters, we dug into our pockets to begin serial production
of a superior Israeli model.

That was only the beginning.

The Blinken-Austin letter threatening Israel with an arms embargo as the
Jewish State is in the middle of an intensive war can be expected to have a
lasting impact on Israeli arms planning.

We are already scrambling to produce a large portfolio of components and
ammunition, which until recently were received from Uncle Sam.

The scar left by the Blinken-Austin letter is so deep that no matter how the
White House behaves after the elections, or who gets sworn in next January,
Israeli defense procurement decisions will take into account the possibility
of a future arms embargo.

The embargo threat also serves to put the nail in the coffin for any future
"diplomatic" scheme that hinges on "ironclad guarantees" from America.

To be clear: it would have been better for us to reach these conclusions
without it being the product of the Biden Administration's "two-by-four
treatment."

But at least we can have the satisfaction of knowing that, in the long run,
the embargo threat will serve to dramatically improve Israeli defense
procurement decisions while avoiding nonsensical diplomatic arrangements
that hinge on "ironclad" American guarantees.
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