Technical Note: Unprecedented Terms & Conditions Could Block Return To War In Hamas Deal
Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 April 2025

A classic defect in Israeli thinking is the assumption that the future will be a copy of the past.

So we have that 99% or more of the Israelis calling for us to accept Hamas’ terms assume that it will be child’s play for us to go back to war against Hamas once the hostages are released, regardless of what international guarantees Hamas may receive.

Some point to the situation in Lebanon, where, despite a ceasefire, we manage to continue attacking Hezbollah.

But Lebanon isn’t Gaza and Hamas also sees what’s going on there.

A few possibilities:

A United Nations Security Council resolution under Chapter VII with a form of “snapback” provision so that various serious international sanctions and even force can be imposed against Israel if we are seen as violating the ceasefire. Once in place, only a unanimous vote of the UNSC can void the Resolution.

Arab observer forces deployed in the Gaza Strip could serve not only as “human shields” but also as “tripwires” as a deterrent to Israel.

It also wouldn’t require that America has a president from the Democratic Party for us to face tremendous pressure to avoid action against Gaza. To put it delicately, the next Republican president may also have very different priorities.

Let’s not make the mistake of basing policy on wishful thinking.

We have already paid a dear price for such a mistake.
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