PCPO 58.3% of Palestinians: Israeli Death Penalty Would Deter
Dr. Aaron Lerner 10 November 2025

IMRA asked Dr. Kukali (via WhatsApp)

Are you saying that- at least in the short term - 58.3% of those polled say
the death sentence would be an effective deterrent while 22.3% think it
would increase attacks?
How does jibe with the result for expectation of violence escalation
Creating martyrs without it increasing violence (first question) doesn't
bother Israeli policymakers.
If the 100+ Gazans trapped now in tunnels become "martyrs" I doubt any
Israeli decision maker would consider this a bad outcome

Dr. Kukali replied:

Subject: Methodological Clarifications and Interpretation of Results
Hello my Dear friend,
Thank you for your thoughtful questions. Please find below concise and
direct clarifications:
1) Regarding deterrence vs. increased attacks
Yes, according to the specific question about short-term security
effectiveness:
58.3% believe the law may achieve deterrence (some said
effectively, others
temporarily).
22.3% think it would increase attacks.
18.0% said it would create "martyrs/heroes" in the collective
consciousness - which
reflects a symbolic-motivational effect rather than an immediate change in
the number of attacks.
2) How this aligns with the expectation of escalating violence
There is no contradiction; the two questions measure different dimensions:
The deterrence question focuses on individual behavior (whether some
potential attackers might refrain).
The "escalation of violence" question captures broader field
dynamics (clashes, unrest, protests, reciprocal escalation).
Therefore, around 76.7% expecting some form of escalation (46.4% major +
30.3% limited) can coexist with a smaller group believing in short-term
individual deterrence.
In short: individual deterrence may occur, but overall field conditions are
still expected to worsen.
3) Creating "martyrs" without immediate escalation
This reflects a symbolic and emotional outcome that might not instantly
translate into more attacks but can strengthen collective anger, solidarity,
and mobilization. Such effects often manifest through nonlinear escalation
(e.g., demonstrations, local clashes, revenge cycles), explaining why most
respondents foresee broader escalation, even if some perceive temporary
deterrence.
4) On Israeli policymakers' assumptions
The poll does not measure the views of Israeli decision-makers nor evaluate
what they consider "troubling" or not. It measures Palestinian public
perceptions of likely outcomes.
According to our results:
46.4% expect deterioration in relations and increased hostility
between both peoples.
74.4% believe the law would completely or partially destroy
prospects for peace.
Thus, respondents perceive the law as politically and socially costly, even
if policymakers in Israel may frame it differently - but that is beyond the
scope of this survey.
5) About the hypothetical scenario (martyrs in tunnels)
This specific scenario was not asked directly, so no empirical conclusion
can be drawn beyond the data. What can be said is that a significant portion
of the public expects symbolic- motivational effects (creating martyrs)
alongside overall escalation and the erosion of peace prospects. These are
public opinion perceptions, not normative judgments or policy
recommendations.
If you wish, I can send detailed cross-tabulation tables (by age, region,
education) to help visualize the nuanced distinctions between those who
expect short-term deterrence and those who foresee wider societal
escalation.
With kind regards, Dr. Nabil Kukali

Here are the questions (topics) and corresponding results from Poll No. 216
- November 10, 2025, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion
(PCPO) about Palestinian attitudes toward Israel's death penalty bill
Poll No.216 In English Version

1. Perceived Motives Behind the Bill
Question: What is the main goal of introducing the death-penalty bill now?
42.2 % To escalate racial discrimination against Palestinians
29.4 % Political motives / domestic gains for the Israeli government

25.6 % Enhance security deterrence
2.8 % Uncertain
2. Deterrence or Escalation of Violence
Question: Would the law deter attacks or inflame them?
40.8 % Effective deterrent
17.5 % Temporary deterrent
22.3 % Increase attacks
18.0 % Create new "martyrs and heroes"

3. Impact on Israel's International Image
Question: How would the bill affect Israel's global reputation?
38.4 % Increase international isolation
31.3 % Little effect
28.0 % Might gain support from some countries

4. Fear of Escalating Violence
Question: What level of violence would follow if the bill is enacted?
46.4 % Major escalation
30.3 % Limited escalation
21.3 % No effect

5. Impact on Palestinian Youth
Question: How might the law influence young Palestinians?
33.2 % Push toward confrontation / radicalization
35.5 % Encourage peaceful solutions
28.0 % No clear effect

6. Psychological Effect on Prisoners
Question: How will the bill affect Palestinian prisoners?
52.6 % Increase fear and anxiety
27.0 % Strengthen resilience
18.5 % No effect

7. Future of Peace and Negotiations
Question: Would passing the law harm peace prospects (esp. re Trump's Peace
Initiative)?
46.4 % Completely destroy prospects
28.0 % Partially weaken them
22.3 % No effect
3.3 % Unsure

8. Impact on Future Relations Between Peoples
Question: What effect would enforcement have on relations between Israelis
and Palestinians?
46.4 % Deteriorate relations / increase hatred
28.4 % Limited or temporary impact
23.2 % No effect

9. Palestinian Public Recommendations to Israel
Question: What actions do respondents recommend?
30.3 % Withdraw the bill immediately
26.1 % Use political alternatives instead of collective punishment
28.0 % Respect international law and human rights
12.3 % Improve relations and trust

Methodology (overview)
Sample: 211 Palestinian adults (62 % West Bank, 38 % Gaza)
Period: 1-9 November 2025
Mode: CATI telephone survey
Response rate: 72 %
Full details: Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) www.pcpo.org
Poll No.216 In English Version
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