How to Keep the Strait of Hormuz Open After the War
Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 March 2026

How can the Strait of Hormuz be secured in a durable way once the fighting
ends?

History suggests that relying solely on agreements with Tehran would be
foolhardy.

Past arrangements have often been followed by renewed tensions or
violations.

In the absence of a dramatic regime change, a unilateral arrangement is
required to ensure that Iran can never close this vital waterway again.

An arrangement which restricts activity both on the waterway and in a
limited coastal buffer zone.

A unilateral arrangement which relies on boots on the ground within the
coastal buffer zone would most definitely be a non-starter.

Boots on the ground would not be required for a no-tolerance approach which
destroys any equipment in violation of restrictions immediately upon
detection.

In an ideal world, this stringent arrangement could be achieved by a Chapter
VII United Nations Security Council Resolution not vetoed by China or
Russia.

We live in anything but an ideal world.

The workaround could be achieved, in the immediate aftermath of the war,
with a unilateral declaration by the United States (with allies like Israel
and GCC states) of a ceasefire or armistice imposing the security regime as
a condition for halting operations.

The zone would be designated as a temporary "post-conflict stabilization
measure" under customary law, similar to the Iraq no-fly zones (1991-2003),
which were imposed by the U.S., UK, and France without explicit UNSC
authorization but claimed as necessary to protect civilians and enforce
prior resolutions (e.g., UNSC Res. 688 on humanitarian crises).

In addition, any redeployment of prohibited systems (e.g., a vehicle
carrying missiles, drones or mines in the zone) would be treated a priori as
evidence of an imminent "armed attack" under UN Charter Article 51,
triggering anticipatory self-defense and justifying immediate standoff
destruction upon detection.

We all hope to witness a durable viable regime change in Iran in the coming
days.

It is crucial, however, to have solutions on the table which do not rely
either on regime change or the consent of the current Iranian regime.

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