A Practical Fix for the Fertilizer Shock: Let Big Oil's Windfall Pay to Put
Food Crops Back on the Table
Dr. Aaron Lerner 4 April, 2026

The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a fertilizer
supply shock that will hurt global food security far more than most people
realize. Fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, and Gulf
shipments account for roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade.

Even if the strait reopens in the next two weeks, the damage to 2026 crop
yields is largely locked in. Farmers have already made their planting
decisions under higher fertilizer prices. Analysts now forecast global food
prices rising 12% to 18% by late 2026 and remaining elevated into 2027.

There is a straightforward way to blunt this blow - and it does not require
new land, new technology, or taxpayer money.

The Proposal

Temporarily redirect a portion of edible crops now used for biofuels (corn,
soybeans, sugarcane, rapeseed) back into human and animal food supply.

These crops are already perfectly edible and part of the food chain; only
government mandates currently divert them to fuel.

Important clarification on corn: The corn diverted from ethanol is field
corn (dent corn), not sweet corn eaten on the cob. It is already widely used
in human food as cornmeal, corn flour, starch, high-fructose corn syrup,
corn oil, chips, and tortillas, as well as livestock feed. Redirecting it
simply sends the same kernels to food processors and feed mills instead of
ethanol plants - no major new infrastructure is required.

Compensate the biofuels industry and affected farmers entirely through a
targeted windfall-profits tax on the excess earnings of oil companies
created by the same Hormuz-driven oil-price spike.

How Much Difference Would This Make?

United States alone: A credible 30% temporary reduction in biofuel mandates
could free up the caloric equivalent of 6% to 10% of global cereal and
vegetable-oil supply from the 2026 harvest.

If major biofuel nations act together (U.S., Brazil, EU, India and others),
coordinated action could shift 12% to 18% of the world's edible-crop
calories away from fuel tanks and back into food and feed markets.

Net impact on the shortage: This would reduce the projected food-price
inflation by roughly 40% to 60% - the equivalent of adding the annual food
needs of 200-350 million people without clearing a single new acre of land.

Why This Is Politically and Practically Feasible Now

The windfall-profits tax on Big Oil (50% of profits above a pre-crisis
baseline) could generate tens of billions of dollars in the first year
alone.

That revenue would be sufficient to offset lost income for ethanol plants,
corn/soy growers, and rural communities. It would also fund transition
grants to retool plants for food-grade use and cover storage and logistics
costs.

Framing is simple and powerful: "The same crisis that created oil-company
windfalls now funds the solution to the food crisis."

Timing and Next Steps

Even though planting for the 2026 harvest is already underway or locked in,
the harvested crops themselves can still be reassigned.

Once the grain is harvested, and while not all capacity can shift
immediately, the federal government can use existing emergency powers -
including the Defense Production Act and EPA biofuel-waiver authority - to
redirect it from ethanol plants to food and feed markets.

A clear policy signal issued now, paired with guaranteed compensation, gives
ethanol plants, grain elevators, and farmers the certainty they need to
prepare for post-harvest redirection.

Critics will call this "government interference." In normal times they would
be correct. But a fertilizer shock caused by foreign conflict is exactly the
kind of emergency these authorities were created for.

Using oil windfall profits to fund the transition is fiscally responsible
and politically balanced.

The alternative is to accept higher food prices, shrinking livestock herds,
and renewed hunger risks in developing countries - all while oil companies
bank record profits and biofuel plants continue burning food that humans and
animals could eat.

We have the crops. We have the legal tools. We even have the revenue source.

The only missing piece is the political will to act before the 2026 harvest
begins.

The window is open now - but it will not stay open for long.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il