Weekly Commentary: Operation Lightning Strike – Squandered Opportunity To Prevent October 7th?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 May 2026

Let’s set the scene with this excerpt of an article based on documents seized by Israel:

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Guardian of the Walls constituted a watershed conflict, with formative and multi-faceted effects on Hamas’s calculations. It remains key to understanding the strategic conditions that produced the October 7, 2023, offensive and to understanding Israel’s inability to grasp the conflict’s trajectory.

…During the conflict, Israel came under sporadic rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria; Israel twice thwarted Lebanese activists from infiltrating its border, and an armed drone launched from Iraq was intercepted by Israel.

…For Hamas, Guardian of the Walls was an inflection point in the conflict. Over the next few months, this would be represented in its leaders’ public statements. Days into the cease-fire, Al-Sinwar stated, “There already exists a prepared scenario, and we just conducted a dress rehearsal for it. Gaza will come out in all its force and its resistance. And the West Bank will explode in all its force. And our brethren in the occupied lands inside [Israel] will uprise.”

Daniel Sobelman (12 Jan 2026): The Strategic Origins of Hamas’s October 7 Attack, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism
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Operation Guardian of the Walls took place 10 - 21 May 2021

Operation Lightning Strike was designed, based on intensive intelligence activity, to map out Hamas tunnels near the border and determine how to effectively destroy them in an IAF bombing attack.

Under Operation Lightning Strike, Hamas was expected to respond to the launching of an IDF ground force invasion of the Gaza Strip with a massive deployment of their best troops in those targeted Hamas tunnels. IAF attacks on the tunnels were expected to wipe out the Hamas forces in the tunnels. A stunning game changing loss for Hamas was anticipated.

But on 14 May 2021, when we launched Operation Lightning Strike, the news broadcasts said we were invading the Gaza Strip but the Hamas commanders saw that our forces didn’t actually move.

So Hamas didn’t fill the tunnels with troops.

The result was a massive IAF bombing attack on basically empty tunnels.

So we have two dramatically different outcomes of plans which had the potential to be game changers:

14 May 2021 Operation Lightning Strike: Stripped of its potential due to the failure to implement the actual plan.

17-18 September 2024 Beepers and walkie -talkies in Lebanon against Hezbollah: Thousands out of Hezbollah fighters out of action and the communication network for Hezbollah's command structure crippled.
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